That is what I believe.
You believe it, even though:
- There is no evidence for it.
- There is evidence against it.
- You’re Arminian, meaning you believe that Jesus’ sacrifice DID expiate that sin and, therefore, that if they repented they could be saved; your whole theology, therefore, prevents you from holding that with any confidence.
Believing something against the evidence can only happen if you either want the thing to be true or you’re afraid to believe otherwise.